War on Iran Is the Beginning of the End for Fossil Fuels – CleanTechnica

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While scouring the world for cleantech headlines this morning, I came across an op-ed in the New York Times by David Wallace-Wells, who has written extensively on climate change and energy politics. He thinks the current war in Iran is a sign of something bigger – an acknowledgment by all concerned that fossil fuels are past, while renewables are the future.

And why not? Despite the protests of fat tycoons like Chris Wright about how they have lifted millions out of poverty, they have killed and maimed millions more, not only in wars but also in environmental pollution that sickens people and causes the untimely death of many more every year.

If any readers are concerned about the excruciating pain left behind when someone dies in combat, I highly recommend Shrapnel In The HeartLaura Palmer’s book in which the author interviews the families of those whose names appear on The Wall in Washington, DC. If their stories don’t tug at your heartstrings and bring tears to your eyes, you might be Pete Hegseth’s twin.

The Third Wave of Power

I can’t take you behind a paywall Timesbut I can highlight several important aspects of the Wallace-Wells essay. With editorial permission, this is what he wrote:

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of the supply of Covid, the war in Iran marks the third major energy crisis in just a few years, years in which fossil fuel believers argued that the green revolution could put an intolerable chaos and political leaders stepped down because of the conditions in the name of “energy security.”

The world is still reeling from the final shock, and the new one promises a brutal long tail, too. The head of the International Energy Agency called the Iran war “the biggest threat to global energy security in history.” One-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, along with perhaps one-fifth of its oil.

Although the direct costs of the blockade have generated much attention, inflation remains the same. Across much of Asia and parts of Africa, fuel shortages and power outages are likely. The world could be dragged into recession by the power of rising energy prices, even if direct conflicts subside quickly.

We have written about this issue as well. The cost of almost everything will go up, even if the war ends tomorrow. On the upside, that will probably create an AI bubble. On the downside, fertilizer shortages and rising fuel prices can make food more expensive.

Mid-Revolutionary War

Wallace-Wells describes what is happening in Iran as “a new era of resource conflict that only emerges when the old power regime is upended but before the new one begins.” He calls it “the battle of the middle revolution, the old battle of fossil energy and the new paradigm of renewable energy.

He cites the text of Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan at Foreign Affairs highlighting that the world is not independent about the availability of oil and gas, and the stability and prices in recent decades. However now we have “the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela in part to secure a new source of oil” and “a crisis of world power by trying to topple the petrostate in a regime change.”

On the other hand, he says, there are no wars started with solar panels. The same goes for wind turbines and electric motors/batteries. And then he brings back a decades-old question that hasn’t been asked enough: “Why continue to rely so much on imports from unsustainable investors overseas when you can instead harvest the vast solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal energy available almost anywhere in the world?”

Future Conflicts

The transition to a restructured economy may not be peaceful, Wallace-Wells points out. There are other devices that can trigger military responses. As we reported last week, Tehran is so short of water that, before the bombs started falling, plans were being made to move the country’s capital to the southern coast of Iran where large desalination plants will provide much-needed clean water to its citizens.

Already in the current war, desalination plants have been targeted. Many people do not know, many countries in the Middle East are very dependent on those facilities. In some places, 90 percent of fresh water comes from them. In the future, access to clean water may come before access to oil and methane.

Three steps forward, two steps back

While there are clear reasons to move away from fossil fuels, Wallace-Wells warns that change is unlikely to proceed quickly, despite the evidence surrounding us that fossil fuel dependence is a death sentence for the Earth and everything that lives on it.

“Governments across the developing world rely on tax revenues from energy companies or direct funding from state-owned fossil enterprises.” That money will dry up quickly as the transition progresses, leaving those countries vulnerable and vulnerable.

“All this is happening on a planet in the middle of its transformation, which may take thousands or even millions of years and to which few civilizations have begun to properly adapt.”

Reforms and War

What should we take from this conversation? Perhaps nothing more than shifting the conversation from global warming to global conflict depends on the evolution of renewables. Only lunatics like Pete Hegseth celebrate armed conflict, and the events of the past month show that it is the ignorant ass that is driving America into a deep economic hole.

Wallace-Wells’ message is that the transition away from fossil fuels will be long and tumultuous, but its schedule is beginning to emerge, while the world is reeling from the current conflict started by a president who is dead-brained to satisfy his endless obsessions. America has seen this movie before, when Bush Lite declared that God had spoken to him and told him to organize the Middle East in the way America likes while confiscating Iraq’s oil.

The oil wars are like Groundhog Day – a constant repetition of the same old shibboleths with a predictable outcome. It’s time to stop the madness and get down to business building sustainable societies where everyone has access to all the energy they need to live a full and abundant life.

God gave us dominion over the Earth, if you believe what was written more than 2000 years ago, but he did not give us permission to destroy it. He has given us enough free energy to meet all our needs. Let’s put it to good use and stop the madness of wars for oil. Our progress depends on it.